BANK NIFTY – Monthly Chart Analysis
Current level shown: ~59,610
You are looking at a strong secular uptrend, and Bank Nifty is now trading near all-time highs.
Trend (Big Picture)
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Primary trend: Strong Bullish
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Structure: Higher highs + higher lows intact since 2020
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Banks are clearly leading the market vs Nifty.
So:
👉 Long term = Bullish
👉 Medium term = Bullish
👉 Short term = Slightly overextended
RSI Insight (Important)
RSI (14) ≈ 68
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Near overbought zone (70)
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Shows strong momentum
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But also signals possible short-term cooling / sideways move
Not bearish yet — just stretched.
Major Resistance Zones
Because price is near ATH, resistances are psychological + projection based:
Immediate Resistance
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60,000 – 60,300
Round number + recent rejection.
Higher Resistance
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61,500 – 62,000
Next projected supply if 60k breaks.
Major Support Zones
Immediate Support
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58,500 – 58,000
Recent breakout base.
Strong Support
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56,500 – 56,000
Previous consolidation zone.
Structural Support (if deeper correction)
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53,000 – 52,000
Very strong long-term base.
Candle Structure
Recent candles near top show:
✔ Smaller bodies
✔ Upper wicks
✔ Hesitation near 60k
This usually indicates:
👉 Profit booking at highs
👉 Range formation before next leg
Probable Scenarios (Next 1–3 Months)
Scenario 1 (Most likely – Consolidation)
Range:
👉 58,000 – 60,500
Sideways with volatility.
🔹 Scenario 2 (Bullish Breakout)
Monthly close above 60,500
Targets:
➡ 61,800 → 63,000
🔹 Scenario 3 (Pullback)
Break below 58,000
Then:
➡ 56,000
Simple Trading / Investment View
If Investor:
Stay invested.
Add on dips near 56k–58k.
If Trader:
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Buy near 58,200–58,500
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SL: 57,400
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Target: 60,200
Summary
🟢 Trend: Strong Bullish
🟡 RSI: Near overbought (cooling possible)
🟢 Support: 58k → 56k
🔴 Resistance: 60k → 62k
Bank Nifty – Feb 2026 Outlook (Based on Monthly + Structure)
Current zone: ~59,600
Market is strong but stretched near ATH.
Expect range + volatility before next directional move.
Feb Expiry Expected Range
Most probable:
👉 58,000 – 60,500
If breakout happens:
👉 61,800
If breakdown:
👉 56,000
Supports (Put Writing Zones)
These are areas where buyers likely defend:
S1: 58,500
Immediate support.
S2: 57,800 – 57,500
Strong buying zone.
S3 (deep): 56,000
Only if market turns weak.
Resistances (Call Writing Zones)
R1: 60,000
Psychological wall.
R2: 60,500
Upper range.
R3 (breakout): 61,800
Current Option Structure (Typical at these levels)
Likely:
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Heavy Put writing near 58,000
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Heavy Call writing near 60,000
So market makers trying to keep:
👉 58k–60k
Simple Strategy Ideas (Educational)
Strategy 1 – Range Trader (Safe)
If index stays between 58k–60k:
Sell:
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60,000 CE
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58,000 PE
(Short strangle)
Hedge with:
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Buy 61,500 CE
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Buy 56,500 PE
Low risk defined.
Strategy 2 – Directional Buy
If price comes near 58,200–58,500
Buy Bank Nifty CE (ATM / slight ITM)
SL: below 57,400
Target: 60,000
Strategy 3 – Breakout
Only if 60,500 breaks on daily close:
Buy CE
Targets: 61,800 → 63,000
Fibonacci Projection (From last swing)
Upside targets:
➡ 61,800
➡ 63,200
Downside retracement:
➡ 57,600
➡ 56,200
Final Summary
🟢 Trend: Strong bullish
🟡 Near ATH → Expect consolidation
📌 Feb Range: 58k–60.5k
🟢 Buy zone: 58.5k
🔴 Sell zone: 60k
🚀 Breakout above 60.5k
What Is OI Analysis?
Open Interest (OI) = total number of active option contracts
Tracking OI build-up at strikes shows where big players are defending positions.
When OI is high at a strike, it tends to act as:
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Support (for high OI Puts)
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Resistance (for high OI Calls)
This helps define expected price range for the expiry.
Expected OI Support & Resistance Levels
Put OI (Support Zones)
These are strikes with large Put OI — strong demand zones where writers expect price to hold:
✔ 58,000 PE – Major support
✔ 57,500 PE – Strong pivot zone
✔ 57,000 PE – Deep support if market weakens
➡ Buyers defend these levels.
Call OI (Resistance Zones)
These strikes have large Call OI — areas with heavy short calls or writing pressure:
✔ 60,000 CE – Strong resistance
✔ 60,500 CE – Critical upper band
✔ 61,000 CE – Next resistance if breakout
➡ Sellers likely roll/defend here.
PCR (Put–Call Ratio) Insight
PCR = Sum of Put OI / Sum of Call OI
Typical interpretations:
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PCR > 1 → More put interest → bearish bias
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PCR < 1 → More call interest → bullish bias
For Bank Nifty, PCR near 0.9–1.0 around 58k–60k implies:
👉 Market makers are balanced
👉 Range is 58k–60.5k for Feb
This aligns with price structure and expected range.
Why These Levels Matter
When OI is heavy at specific strikes:
✔ Market tends to revert toward those strikes
✔ Breakouts tend to happen only after OI shifts
✔ Large unwinding OI can accelerate moves
Combined OI + Price Structure View
| Level | Type | Role |
|---|---|---|
| 61,000 CE | Call OI high | Strong resistance |
| 60,500 CE | Call OI big | Upper cap |
| 60,000 CE | Call OI big | Immediate resistance |
| 58,000 PE | Put OI big | Immediate support |
| 57,500 PE | Put OI big | Strong pivot |
| 57,000 PE | Put OI buildup | Deep support |
Expected Expiry Bias (Based on OI)
🔹 Range Market:
If price stays between 58,000 – 60,500, OI suggests mean reversion.
🔹 Bullish Breakout:
If price moves above 60,500 AND Call OI decreases → trend extension likely.
🔹 Bearish Breakdown:
Drop below 57,500 with rising Put OI → deeper correction to 56k.
Quick Strategy Ideas (OI-based)
Range Play
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Sell 60,000 CE
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Sell 58,000 PE
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Hedge if needed with wings:
Buy 61,000 CE
Buy 57,000 PE
Breakout Play
If price crosses & closes above 60,500 (daily):
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Buy 60,500 CE
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Target: 61,800 → 63,000
Breakdown Play
If price slips below 57,500 (daily):
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Buy 57,000 PE
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Target: 56,000 → 55,000
Summary
📌 Major OI Resistances → 60,000 / 60,500 / 61,000
📌 Major OI Supports → 58,000 / 57,500 / 57,000
📌 Expected Feb Range → 58,000 – 60,500
📌 Bias → Range-bound unless significant breakout/breakdown